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When I watched this webcast around Predictify, I recalled a great scene in the movie Princess Bride where Vizzini, the criminal mastermind, loses a “battle of wits” to the Man In Black, the hero, when posed the life or death question:
Vizzini’s dizzying reasoning (leading to his death) is a perfect example on why Wisdom of the Crowds (WotC) is becoming popular. With just our wetware to help us we tend to mess up in two primary ways:
Vizzini’s deductive tailspin was a perfect example. About halfway through he mentions an angle that would lead him to the right answer … “you could have put the poison in your own goblet” … but then skips on to other options. A crowd of smart people might have helped him pause there and explore / weight that option better. Really it’s very similar to ‘Poll the Audience’ or ‘Phone a Friend’ (ala the game show Who Wants to be a Millionaire?). This webcast talks about a how Predictify, a WotC player, takes this problem solving style up a notch. So if you are curious on how your friends, the audience, and Regis Philbin could help your business … this webcast is for you.
3. If You Say “Crowd” … Shouldn’t You Think “Marketing”?
Read the detail scribble below for more aspects … segmentation of answers by demographic, branded pages on their servers, etc. Predictify is taking an exciting space and adding even more excitment.
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crowd sourcing, game, Mike Agnich, predictions, Web 2.0
• http://www.fastcompany.tv/video/using-crowds-predict-outcomes-predictify
• 6/12/2008, 6:33 AM
• Mike Agnich
• Web is old information … how to provide forward looking information
• Sports, Stocks, Pop , Business, Politics … Various questions studies
……………..○ Bauer Comment - So limited to questions that masses have opinions on
• Focus questions into style of asking measurable events
• Some people predict better
• Track who can predict better than others …
……………..○ Bauer Comment - more interesting, finding the kreskin(s) in the crowd
……………..○ They group / evolve people into bands of experience beginners, apprentices
• 6/12/2008, 6:39 AM
• MSFT Example
……………..○ Key is picking gem commentary from haystack
……………..○ Anonymous commentary
• How measure right answer.
……………..○ Market, Sportsline,
• 6/12/2008, 6:41 AM
• Incentive system
……………..○ Reputation building
……………..○ Competition (W/L record)
……………..○ Premium questions (paid for)
…………………………….§ Two types of questions - free and pay-for
…………………………….§ Pay-for pays for right answer
…………………………….§ Bauer Comment - Similar to that one company that presented @ TED
……………..○ 4 times as much $ if you are right
• ? Sponsorer Get Additional Data
……………..○ Demographics
……………..○ Level of historical accuracy
……………..○ Age, Gender
……………..○ Customer segmentation inline w/ marketing
• 6/12/2008, 6:44 AM
• Commentary by racial lines for politics
• Key is that the outlier answers fall away leaving the right answer
• 6/12/2008, 6:45 AM
• How big does the community need to be for good accuracy
……………..○ Depends on ? Style (statistics)
…………………………….§ Binary question (Y/N) is harder to lock in
……………………………………………□ Bauer Comment - Interesting, so Y/N isn’t really too telling as the guess noise creeps in
……………..○ 1000 I a good rule of thumb
• 6/12/2008, 6:46 AM
• Elections have helped w/ his demographics
……………..○ Age spread is good
……………..○ More Male than Female
……………..○ Questions on site is cerebral … so mature crowd
• 6/12/2008, 6:47 AM
• Linking to Facebook? To grow demographics?
……………..○ How expand / integrate to other social sites being reviewed
……………..○ Need open networks
• 6/12/2008, 6:48 AM
• Free service
• Mobile client?
……………..○ Bauer Comment - Not specifically answered
• Email contact types (them to users)
……………..○ Bauer Comment - Not a clear answer
• 6/12/2008, 6:49 AM
• Vegas Line … Bad Indicator
……………..○ Not saying what will happen …. Says what will make $
……………..○ Frame questions on not ‘who you want to win’ … rather … ‘who will win’ … try to separate person from the question … ‘what do you think will happen’
…………………………….§ Bauer Comment - so question style is key to elicit good stats … separation of personal bias … focus on attributes that drive the answer
• 6/12/2008, 6:51 AM
• Demo
……………..○ Image
……………..○
……………..○ High Level of comments … 2 comments per 3 logins
…………………………….§ Opportunity to think
……………..○ Example is one where Obama / Clinton debate will resolve
……………..○ Graph types
…………………………….§ Scatterplot
…………………………….§ Histogram
……………..○ Filter by types of predictor (their historical accuracy) … regraph
……………..○ Filter by demographic type
…………………………….§ Bauer Comment - real time rendering of graphing
……………..○ Free question … See level of expertise filter only
……………..○ Don’t talk about sponsor of ?’s (Scoble asked)
……………..○ Market research use … primary focus … consumer product companies … companies like Coke, Pepsi, Phizer, GM … those are the targets … companies trying to get people engaged to their brand online
……………..○ Engagement Advertising
…………………………….§ Move - Post trailer
…………………………….§ Sponsor … Don’t care about results … just trying to build brand
…………………………….§ Bauer Comment - Interesting. Instead of social network based competition … go for engagement marketing
…………………………….§ In pilot stage w/ a few companies on that angle
…………………………….§ 6/12/2008, 6:58 AM
…………………………….§ Deeper than just a poll question … allow broader answer and interaction with group responding … comments, filters, etc
……………..○ 6/12/2008, 6:59 AM
……………..○ Track friends and what they are predicting
……………..○ Widget for blogs sharing predictions
…………………………….§ They see a more compelling model
…………………………….§ Platform. 5 minutes. Create a branded page. Customize questions. Leaderboard. Etc.
……………………………………………□ Bauer Comment - Bad. UX wise people hit one page on a blog.
…………………………….§ They are working with Mashable to create a ‘question’ page on product launches … etc
…………………………….§ Scoble … wants to cross compare blogs
…………………………….§ Photoshop .. Put graphs next to each other
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